SMU vs Tulane Picks, Odds & Best Bets – 2023 AAC Title Game

Sep 23, 2023; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; SMU Mustangs quarterback Preston Stone (2) in action during the game between the TCU Horned Frogs and the SMU Mustangs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports#25 SMU plays #17 Tulane in the American Athletic Conference ChampionshipTulane is looking to win back-to-back AAC ChampionshipsRead below for SMU vs Tulane odds, picks, and predictions for the AAC Championship

On Saturday, SMU (10-2, 7-5 ATS) battles reigning AAC Champion Tulane (11-1, 5-7 ATS) at Yulman Stadium in New Orleans, LA at 4:00 P.M. EST. This is SMU’s first time in the AAC Championship game and just Tulane’s second time since the conference began playing a championship game in 2015.

The latest college football odds have SMU as 3.5-point underdogs to Tulane with a game total of 47 points.

SMU Mustangs vs Tulane Green Wave Odds

This line has been on the move this week. It opened last Saturday with Tulane being 3-point favorites. Early in the week, the line shot up to Tulane -5.5, then it slowly moved to Tulane -3.5, close to what the opening line was. The total is no different. The O/U opened at 52.5 and has moved all the way down to 47.

As -160 favorites, Tulane has an implied probability of 61.54% to win this game and become back-to-back AAC Champions.

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SMU Betting Trends

Southern Methodist is red-hot heading into this conference championship game. They have won eight games in a row, and have scored at least 31 points in each of them. The Mustangs lead the AAC in points per game with 41.8. They are also top three in the conference in yards per game and in passing yards per game.

The Silent Assassin🥷 @Kevin8Jennings pic.twitter.com/KOT0xiK33o

— SMU FOOTBALL (@SMUFB) November 30, 2023

SMU went undefeated in conference play this season and only lost to Oklahoma and TCU. The Mustangs have covered the spread in seven of their twelve games up to this point.

It has not just been the offense, though. SMU’s defense also leads the conference in points allowed. The Mustangs have allowed just 17.7 points per game. The Mustangs are the definition of a complete team, and they come into this game playing their best football.

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Tulane Betting Trends

Tulane is entering this game on a winning streak as well. The Green Wave have won ten games in a row, with their only loss coming to Ole Miss in Week 2. Tulane covered the spread in five of twelve games this season.

Introducing the 2023 @American_Conf All-Conference Team! #RollWave | #NOLABuilt pic.twitter.com/9DU87AdIFz

— Tulane Football (@GreenWaveFB) November 29, 2023

Statistically, Tulane has been a middle-of-the-pack offense. They are averaging 388.3 yards per game and 27.9 points per game this season. Their offense has done enough to give them an 11-1 record, but it has been Tulane’s defense that got them to the championship game for the second year in a row.

Tulane’s defense trails just SMU in points allowed this season with 18.3. They have been strong against the run, but they have been vulnerable at times against the pass. Because of their mediocre offense and talented defense, the under has hit in ten of twelve games that Tulane has played in this year.

SMU Mustangs vs Tulane Prediction

Tulane has the experience in this game and is playing at home, but SMU has too much going for them right now. This Mustangs offense will be able to exploit Tulane’s weak pass defense, and Tulane does not have the playmakers on offense this year to keep up with SMU.

Getting the conference leader in points for and points against as an underdog is a great value.

Pick: SMU +3.5 (-110)

 

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