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We have an exciting Matchday 12 on the horizon before clubs break for the international break. A few of the interesting showdowns include Liverpool hosting Brentford, while the weekend wraps up with Manchester City traveling to London to take on Chelsea. I have action on both of these matchups, along with a third bet in the Aston Villa vs. Fulham match. Let’s dive into my three favorite bets in the Premier League this weekend.
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Premier League Matchday 12 Preview & Best Bets (2023)
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Aston Villa (-175) vs. Fulham (+475), DRAW (+330) | 2.5 (-145/+105)
Fulham isn’t in its best form right now, having gone just 1-1-3 in their last five domestic matches. It won’t be an easy task for Marco Silva’s men this weekend as they take on fifth-ranked Aston Villa. This Sunday morning match is scheduled for 9:00 a.m. ET from Villa Park in Birmingham.
The Villans stumbled last weekend, losing 2-0 at the hostile City Ground of Nottingham Forest. I’m fully expecting a bounceback performance here from Unai Emery’s club as they’ve been excellent at home this campaign. They’re a perfect 5-0-0 and have out-scored the opposition 20-4 in Birmingham. Overall, the offense has been excellent this season, ranking fifth in xG with 20.5. Ultimately, I think they’ll be able to stretch this lead out to at least two goals.
As for Fulham, their offense has been ugly this season, managing just nine total goals over 11 matches. Only Burnley is worse in the top flight with eight tallies. These two clubs are trending in opposite directions, and I’ll lay 1.0 goals with Aston Villa in this spot.
Bet: Aston Villa -1.0 (-115)
Liverpool (-235) vs. Brentford (+600), DRAW (+425) | 3.5 (+110/-135)
One of the most intriguing matches on the docket this weekend sees a battle between Liverpool and Brentford. Brentford’s hanging around at ninth in the table (16 points), despite having a laundry list of players sidelined with injuries. This contest is also slated for 9:00 a.m. ET on Sunday, and it’ll kick off from Anfield in Liverpool.
Liverpool’s a sizable favorite to secure their eighth straight victory (across all competitions) at Anfield this campaign, but I don’t feel comfortable laying anything more than them on the moneyline. Brentford’s a scrappy club that always seems to rise to the level of their opponent. Despite missing some key players, the Bees have still managed to rank as high as sixth in xG this season (20.5).
So, rather than play a side here, I’ll lock in a player prop. It’s Mohamed Salah to find the back of the net at any point. The Egyptian is putting together another great season, scoring eight goals through 11 matches. It is worth noting that Salah scored in last year’s 1-0 home victory over Brentford. Let’s ride with this superstar to score for the eighth time in nine matches.
Bet: Mohamed Salah Anytime Goalscorer (-120)
Chelsea (+400) vs. Manchester City (-135), DRAW (+280) | 2.5 (-115/-110)
Finally, let’s head out to the capital city where Chelsea gears up to host Treble-winning Manchester City. Thanks to the Blues’ 4-1 victory over Tottenham last week, City has climbed back into the top spot in the PL with a one-point edge. This is the nightcap on Sunday, which kicks off at 11:30 a.m. ET from Stamford Bridge in London.
I’ll roll with Manchester City on the moneyline in this spot. They’ve owned the head-to-head matchup with Chelsea recently, going 6-0-0 across all competitions, while out-scoring them 10-0. That includes a stretch of four straight 1-0 victories.
The bottom line here is that City always elevates its game and plays dominant, fundamental soccer in matches like this. Look for them to control a healthy amount of the possession and bet on one or two goals being enough to secure the three points. While many want to focus on the electric Erling Haaland (11 goals), and rightfully so, we have to mention that this team is also the best in the Premier League defensively. They’ve posted an xGA of just 8.1, which tops the charts in PL. Look for another lower-scoring affair where Pep Guardiola and the Citizens prevail.
Bet: Manchester City Moneyline (-135)
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