Packers vs. Falcons: NFL Week 2 Picks & Player Prop Bets (2023)

I’m Andrew Erickson, and I’m here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering €“ I know that I am for the first time now that my state has legalized wagering €“ this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action. Here are my top picks for Packers vs. Falcons.

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NFL Betting Primer: Packers vs. Falcons

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons – Spread Line: ATL -1.5

The Packers’ convincing Week 1 victory over the Bears may not be what it was all cracked up to BE. At least from the Green Bay perspective. The Bears’ defense is a mess, specifically in the red zone where the Packers went a perfect 3-for-3. But I am not sure we should back the Packers as 1.5-point road favorites after they posted an average net success rate in Week 1.

Although Chicago lost handily, the game was closer in the first half before a few big plays and a pick-six buried the Bears in the second half. I think we see more of a back-and-forth contest between the Falcons and the Packers.

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And Atlanta’s defense is a much bigger threat to Jordan Love than Chicago. The Bears cannot rush the passer and that was super apparent on Sunday. Love was the second-least pressured QB in Week 1 (20%). When Bryce Young faced the Falcons in Week 1, he was pressured on 45% of his dropbacks. That was the sixth-most among QBs in Week 1.

Speaking of pressure, it was the same story with Desmond Ridder versus Carolina and Justin Fields versus the Packers defensive line. Chicago’s OL was a mess and Fields was pressured on 53% of his dropbacks in Week 1. Ridder €“ like Love €“ was kept upright seeing just a 22% pressure rate.

Both QBs in this matchup benefitted from a lack of pass rush from opponents in Week 1.  That will not be the case in Week 2, which is why the total for this game has been bet down from 42.5 to 40.5. I’d bet the under if I could find any 42.5 lines still out there. Atlanta wants to run the football, and GB won’t move the ball as easily versus a tougher defensive opponent on the road.

And I still think the advantage in the trenches slightly goes to the Falcons. They are a strong run-blocking unit that has shown the ability to run over any defense dating back to last season.

Let’s also not pretend the Packers are an unstoppable run defense after they finished 31st in DVOA versus the run last season. And I fully expect the Falcons offensive to take more advantage of their RBs in the receiving game than the Bears did.

Chicago targeted its RBs on 44% of its passes in Week 1. Atlanta led all teams with a 53% target share of its RBs.

That paired with a strong rushing attack makes it less likely that Ridder is put into a position to have to go out and win the game, which is what the Falcons would prefer. As 2023’s newest game manager, I’ll continue to ride Desmond Ridder’s perfect home-winning streak. The former Cincinnati quarterback has never lost a home game in college or the pros. At worst, they cover the spread even in a failing effort.

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It should be a run-fest given the Packers also ranked 5th in neutral game script rushing rate. Atlanta allowed the Panthers to rush 154 yards at 4.8 yards per clip in Week 1.

Given the tightness of the two teams, the under might be the safest play. But the Falcons losing 8 of their 10 games in one-possession games last year has me betting this is a spot where the regression kicks in. We’ve seen the Vikings be extremely “unlucky” through two weeks of play after finishing 11-0 in one-score games last season. I expect the opposite to occur for the Dirty Birds, starting in Week 2.

Considering the low total in this game, you bet we are going back to the player prop unders. Kyle Pitts barely got to his receiving prop last week, while Drake London was nowhere to be found. I am leaning toward the latter having another tough day at the office in Week 2.

We saw D.J. Moore just got absolutely erased by Jaire Alexander and the GB Packers secondary in Week 1. Darnell Mooney was the only WR who was productive, and it was all production from inside the slot. 4 catches for 53 yards and 1 TD on 6 slot targets. London ran two slot routes last week. 9% slot rate on a 91% route participation.

Keep him on your fantasy football bench in a bad matchup and bet his under. I’m afraid things might be unfolding badly for London in 2023 with Ridder at quarterback in this run-heavy approach. A poor stretch of production is not out of London’s range of outcomes. After a hot start as a rookie, London went Weeks 4-12 without exceeding 40 receiving yards.

  • My picks: Falcons -1.5 (FanDuel Sportsbook -106)
  • My props: Drake London UNDER 49.5 receiving yards (-103 Caesars Sportsbook)

What is Betting Against the Spread?

Betting "against the spread" refers to the act of choosing the winning team based on a numeric handicap placed on the team that oddsmakers believe is superior, rather than picking the outright winner. For example, if the Rams face the Bengals, and oddsmakers set the spread at Rams -3.5, you would need Los Angeles to win by 4 or more points in order to cash your Rams bet.

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What is an Over/Under Bet?

Over/Under is a wager based on how many points you think will be scored in a specific game. Oddsmakers set the total, and bettors decide whether the final score will be higher or lower than that number. If an Over/Under is set at 44.5 points and you bet Over, you will need the combined score of both teams to be 45 points or higher to win your bet.

What is a Moneyline Bet?

A moneyline bet involves choosing which team you believe will win a specific matchup. The moneyline favorite carries a minus designation, like -130. This means that you need to wager $130 to earn a $100 profit. Conversely, the underdog carries a plus designation, like +110. This means that you win $110 in profit on a $100 bet.


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BettingPros Staff