Notre Dame vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Picks

Sep 9, 2023; Raleigh, North Carolina, USA;Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Sam Hartman (10) throws a pass during the first half against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY SportsNotre Dame vs Louisville takes place in College Football Week 6The Irish are priced as -6.5 road favorites in the CFB betting oddsRead below for Notre Dame vs Louisville prediction, odds and picks

Two college football teams that have exceeded expectations this season are set to clash in Week 6 on Saturday. The undefeated Louisville Cardinal are 6.5-point home underdogs against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.

Louisville was expected to finish by many to finish around eighth in the ACC Conference in 2023, but they are currently 5-0, topping the conference standings. They’ll look to extend their home winning streak to eight games by upsetting the 5-1 Irish.

Let’s analyze the Notre Dame vs Louisville odds and provide our prediction for this Week 6 CFB clash.

Notre Dame vs Louisville Odds

Notre Dame is favored to win by 6.5 points with odds of -110. ND’s moneyline price of -250 gives them a 71.4% chance of winning the game.

Kickoff for Saturday’s game is 7:30 PM ET on ABC.

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Odds as of October 5, 2023, at BetMGM Kentucky. With KY sports betting now live, check out the best Kentucky Sports Betting Apps for Notre Dame vs Louisville wagering.

ND vs LOU History

Notre Dame and Louisville have a brief but intense football history. They have faced each other only three times, with Notre Dame leading the series 2-1. The first matchup took place on November 22, 2014, when Louisville claimed a narrow victory with a 31-28 final score. However, Notre Dame bounced back in the following encounters, winning 35-17 in 2019 and 12-7 in 2020.

Some key moments from these games include Ian Book’s performance in the 2019 matchup, where he ran for one touchdown and threw for another, leading Notre Dame to victory. In the 2020 game, Notre Dame’s defense played a crucial role in securing the win, as they held Louisville to just seven points.

Irish Betting Analysis

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have had a strong start to their season with a record of 5-1. In their last game, they defeated the Duke Blue Devils by a 21-14 score.  Sam Hartman threw a touchdown pass to in the final minute to secure the ND victory.

Notre Dame’s strengths lie in their defense, which has been solid throughout the season. They have allowed only an average of 17 points per game and have held opponents to under 100 rushing yards per game. Their offense has been decent as well, averaging around 30 points per game.

Notre Dame’s offense is led by quarterback Sam Hartman, who transferred from Wake Forest after a stellar career there. He has thrown for 1,500 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Running back Audric Estime has been a key player for the Fighting Irish this season with 600 rushing yards and eight touchdowns.

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Cardinal Betting Analysis

The Louisville Cardinals are also having a good season with a record of 5-0 so far.  In their last game, the Cardinal won against NC State by a slim 13-10 margin. Quarterback Jack Plummer threw for 286 yards, going 21-for-35 with one TD and two interceptions.

Combining decision-making and execution, you're not going to see many passes worse than this one from Louisville QB Jack Plummer. pic.twitter.com/En0jklxYHL

— The Comeback (@thecomeback) September 30, 2023

Louisville’s strengths lie in their offense, which has been explosive this season, averaging around 40 points per game. They have a balanced attack with both their passing and rushing games being effective. Plummer has thrown for 1,600 yards and 15 TDs, while RB Jawhar Jordan has accumulated 510 rushing yards and 6 scores.

Louisville’s weakness is their defense, which has allowed an average of around 330 yards per game this season. The team’s rush defense is pretty solid, but the secondary is allowing 218 average yards per game through the air.

Notre Dame vs Louisville Prediction

Notre Dame has a 30-game winning streak against ACC teams, but faces a challenging road game against an undefeated Louisville squad. To make matters worse, Hartman had a rough game against Louisville last year when he was with Wake Forest, including six turnovers and being benched.

Hartman should perform better this year, especially considering the fact Louisville lost key defensive players who had a significant impact against him last year, including Yaya Diabi and Yer Abdullah. Furthermore, Hartman is surrounded by much better talent at ND than Wake.

In honor of Sam Hartman week-err Notre Dame Week. Here is Sam Hartman fumbling 3 times and throwing 3 interceptions in one quarter of play at Louisville. For a total of 6 turnovers… by one guy… in one quarter. #GoCards #LsUp #BeatNotreDame pic.twitter.com/7driV18NIJ

— VilleVsWorld (@VilleVsWorld) October 1, 2023

The key for Louisville will be getting to Hartman and disrupting his throws, as the Irish are giving up an average of just one sack per game. That’s easier said than done when you consider the Louisville defense has recorded only nine sacks in five contests so far.

We trust Hartman much more than we do Plummer, and that’s ultimately why we’re picking the Irish to win and cover on Saturday. While Louisville has a lethal passing attack, this ND secondary proved against OSU that they are legit. Plus for ND, they are expected to welcome back receivers Jaden Thomas and Jaden Greous from injury.

Pick: Notre Dame -6.5 (-110)

 

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