Conference Championships NFL Picks Against the Spread – Early Lines to Target

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) looks to throw over the middle.Looking at the conference championship NFL picks against the spread, home teams are favored in both gamesThe Detroit Lions, 6.5-point road underdogs at San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game, have lost 11 straight away NFL postseason gamesSet as 3.5-point underdogs at Baltimore, the Kansas City Chiefs are playing in their sixth successive AFC Championship Game

The words wide right are not only again haunting the Buffalo Bills today, they are also the cause of yours truly not posting a perfect week in the NFL against the spread picks.

A second straight 2-1 mark is emphasizing my postseason turnaround. Step aside Playoff Lenny. Say hello to Playoff Duffer.

Home cooking is proving to be a winning recipe in the NFL playoffs. The home side has gone 8-2 straight up and 6-4 ATS during this season’s postseason contests.

Favorites are another matter, however. The chalk is 4-6 ATS. Home favorites are 4-4 ATS. That being said, the only away underdog to win outright during the NFL Divisional Round was the Kansas City Chiefs.

In this week’s games, home teams are again set as the chalk. Kansas City goes to Baltimore to face the Ravens as 3.5-point road underdogs in the AFC Championship Game. It’s the sixth straight AFC title game appearance for the Chiefs, but the first time as an away team and as the underdog in the betting odds.

In the NFC Championship Game between the San Francisco 49ers and Detroit Lions, the visiting Lions (-7 to -6.5) have seen the spread shorten in their favor since the opening lines dropped. Detroit is an NFL-best 13-6 against the spread this season.

Now, let’s check out all the best early bets in the NFL Conference Championship Playoffs ATS picks.

Conference Championship NFL Picks Against the Spread

Our top NFL ATS picks this week in the table above will feature plays on the Lions and Chiefs.

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NFL ATS Picks 1: Lions Cover in Bay Area

You have to go all the way back to 1957 to find an NFL postseason in which the Detroit Lions won two games. That’s also the most recent season in which the Lions won an NFL title, so the omens are aligning quite nicely in the Motor City.

While it’s true that Detroit has lost 11 consecutive NFL playoff games on the road, it’s also true that the last time the Lions were victorious in an away postseason contest was in that championship season of 1957. They were 31-27 winners at San Francisco in a playoff for the West Division title.

It's been 66 years since the @Lions won a playoff game on the road.

This win came against the 49ers in San Francisco to advance to the 1957 NFL Championship Game.

That was the last time the Lions were NFL Champions.

📹 @NFLFilms pic.twitter.com/PCgFlddNeI

— Pro Football Hall of Fame (@ProFootballHOF) January 21, 2024

Tobin Rote was the Lions QB in that game, while it was YA Tittle under center for the Niners. YA stood for Yelberton Abraham. That has nothing to do with the outcome of this game. It’s just fun to write.

Overall, Detroit has lost 13 in a row at San Francisco since a 28-17 verdict in 1975. But this season’s edition of the Lions is 7-2 ATS as a road team. Meanwhile, the Super Bowl favorite 49ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games.

NFL ATS Picks: Detroit Lions +6.5 (-105), 1 unit

Super Bowl 59 Odds for 2025: 49ers Open as Favorites, But Chiefs Are Close SecondRead More

NFL ATS Picks 2: Chiefs Will Keep It Close

There’s also an interesting dynamic at work in the AFC Championship Game. The Chiefs never won a conference championship game on the road. Baltimore has never played a conference championship game at home.

Kansas City is 3-2 ATS over the past five AFC title games. The Chiefs are 5-3-1 ATS as an away team this season.

The Football Gods have given us Lamar Jackson vs Patrick Mahomes in the AFC Championship game. pic.twitter.com/lY1lXOCyrM

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) January 22, 2024

Baltimore is 6-4 ATS as a home team. The Ravens are 6-2 ATS over the past eight games. One of those ATS losses was a week 18 game against Pittsburgh in which Baltimore rested many starters.

The Ravens and Chiefs are 2-2 ATS in four meetings with Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson facing Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes in the QB matchup. Jackson is 0-1 ATS when favored over Mahomes.

NFL ATS Picks: Kansas City Chiefs +3.5 (-115), 1 unit

NFL ATS Playoff Record: 4-2

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