Bruins vs Leafs Game 4 Prediction, Odds & Picks

Apr 24, 2024; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Boston Bruins defenseman Hampus Lindholm (27) and forward Charlie Coyle (13) congratulate forward Brad Marchand (63) on his second goal of the game against the Toronto Maple Leafs during the third period of game three of the first round of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY SportsThe Maple Leafs are favored to win Game 4 against the Boston BruinsBruins starting goalie Jeremy Swayman is 6-0-0 against the Leafs over the past two seasonsRead below for Bruins vs Leafs Game 4 odds, prediction, and picks.

The Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs will play Game 4 of their first-round playoff series on Saturday night at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto. Puck drop is scheduled for 8:08 PM ET, and TV coverage will be on NESN, SN, CBC, TVAS, TBS, truTV, and MAX.

The Bruins currently lead the series 2-1 after a 4-2 victory in Game 3. The Maple Leafs are slight -130 moneyline favorites, while the Bruins are +110 underdogs. The over/under is set at six goals.

With William Nylander likely to return, what’s the best Game 4 bet to make? We make our Bruins vs Leafs Game 4 prediction below.

Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs Odds

Despite trailing in the series, the Leafs are priced as -130 home favorites for Game 4, giving them a 56.5% implied win probability.

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Odds as of April 27, 2024, at Bet365 Sportsbook. Unlock the Bet365 promo code to bet on Leafs vs Bruins tonight.

Bruins Bounce Back in Game 3

The Bruins bounced back in Game 3 after dropping Game 2 by a score of 3-2 in Boston. Brad Marchand led the way with two goals and an assist, giving him a team-high six points in the series. Jake DeBrusk also scored his third goal of the playoffs.

Goaltender Jeremy Swayman made 28 saves to earn the win in his second start of the series. Swayman has been excellent against Toronto, posting a .930 save percentage and 2.01 goals against average in the series.

Swayman is now 6-0-0 against Toronto over the past two seasons with a .956 save percentage, making it very difficult to pick against the B’s when he’s in the crease.

Nylander Likely to Return for Leafs

The Maple Leafs will aim to even the series on home ice after a disappointing Game 3 loss. Auston Matthews and Max Domi each have three points to lead Toronto in scoring. Mitch Marner, who had 98 points in the regular season, has been held to just one assist so far.

The biggest storyline for the Leafs is the expected return of William Nylander, who has missed the first three games with an upper-body injury. Nylander was second on the team with 40 goals and 98 points this season.

"We're preparing for Willy to play at this point." 👀

When asked about lineup changes for Game 4 tonight, Toronto Maple Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe confirmed that the team expects William Nylander to return to the lineup for Game 4. pic.twitter.com/In43P9MslF

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) April 27, 2024

Getting Nylander back could provide a major boost to Toronto’s struggling power play, which is just 1-for-11 in the series after clicking at 24% in the regular season. Nylander led the Leafs with 24 power-play assists.

Goalie Ilya Samsonov will look to rebound after allowing four goals on 31 shots in Game 3. He has a .895 save percentage in the series.

The Maple Leafs have been the better 5-on-5 team in the series, posting a 50.95 expected goals-for percentage compared to 49.05 for Boston. However, the Bruins’ power play has been the difference, scoring on five of 10 opportunities. Toronto’s penalty kill must improve after allowing goals on 5 of 11 chances.

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Bruins vs Leafs Game 4 Prediction

This should be a tightly contested Game 4, with the Leafs desperate to avoid falling into a 3-1 series hole. Nylander’s return gives them a better chance, but the Bruins have been the more complete team, and Swayman provides an edge in goal.

Boston’s ability to capitalize on the power play could be the ultimate difference-maker. Even if the Leafs dominate the 5-on-5 battle, the B’s potentially have to strike once or twice with the man advantage to win — given the level Swayman is playing at.

The Bruins are 6-0 in their last six games as a road underdog, while the Maple Leafs are just 1-5 in their previous six home games. We’re backing Boston once again due to their significant goaltending edge. Throw these picks into a same-game parlay to get the best value.

BOS vs TOR Game 4 Picks:

Bruins +1.5 puck line (-265)Under 6 goals (-122)Brad Marchand anytime goalscorer (+200)

 

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