Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Picks, Predictions & Player Props

Mar 14, 2024; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams (8) celebrates after dunking against the Dallas Mavericks during the second half at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY SportsPlayoff positioning is on the line when the Dallas Mavericks face the OKC Thunder on the final day of the NBA regular seasonThe Thunder need a win to stay atop the WestSee the Mavericks vs Thunder predictions, player props, and odds for Sunday’s game

Looking to finish atop the Western Conference for the first time since 2012-13, the OKC Thunder (56-25, 32-8 home, 45-35-1 ATS) host the Dallas Mavericks (50-31, 25-15 away, 48-33 ATS) on Sunday afternoon, and a win will cement OKC into the #1 seed.

Like all eight games involving Western Conference teams on Sunday, Mavs vs Thunder will tip-off at 3:30 pm ET. Unfortunately for NBA fans, Dallas will be resting a litany of starters and rotation players, and the spread is equal to the largest for any NBA game this season.

Dallas Mavericks vs OKC Thunder Odds

The Thunder are 19.5-point favorites in Sunday’s NBA odds and -3000 on the moneyline. The game total is sitting at 225.5.

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Odds as of April 14 at ESPN Bet. See the available betting promo codes for Sunday’s NBA games. 

Who’s Playing for the Mavericks Tonight?

Dallas is going to be running out a skeleton crew for the final game of the regular season. Not only are Luka Doncic (ankle) and Kyrie Irving (hamstring) going to miss their second straight games, only one of the Mavs’ top-seven scorers isn’t on the injury report (Tim Hardaway Jr).

With Doncic and Irving out last game, the Mavs were uncompetitive at home against the NBA-worst Detroit Pistons, falling 107-89 and losing every single quarter. None of Dallas’ starters played more than 16 minutes, and Olivier-Maxence Prosper had a team-high 16 points off the bench.

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OKC Expected to Be at Full Strength

Standing in stark contrast to the Dallas injury report is that of OKC, which is empty. OKC’s starters aren’t expected to log heavy minutes as long as the outcome is in hand, but all their big guns are available if necessary.

The Thunder have won four straight entering Sunday, pulling them back into a three-way tie for first with Minnesota and Denver, most recently crushing Milwaukee 125-107 at home on Friday night.

By virtue of the best head-to-head win percentage among the three teams, the Thunder will win the tie-break in the event that all three teams win (or lose) on Sunday.

If the Thunder beat Dallas, the only way they don’t get the #1 seed in the NBA playoff bracket is if Minnesota wins but Denver loses to Memphis as 13.5-point road favorites. OKC and Minnesota split their four head-to-head meetings and are tied in division win percentage, which would mean conference win percentage would be the deciding tie-breaker, and the T-Wolves hold a two-game lead in that criterion.

DAL vs OKC Player Props

NBA player props as of April 14 at DraftKings. 

Oddsmakers are hesitant to post lines on any Mavericks players as it’s unclear who will even be in the starting lineup for Dallas. The totals for the Thunder starters are slightly lower than usual, with the expectation being that said starters will get ample rest if and when the result is in hand.

Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction

This is an absurdly big spread for an NBA game, even one where the Dallas bench may be mostly G-Leaguers. It makes no difference to OKC whether they win by five or by 30, and with the postseason right around the corner, head coach Mark Daigneault can be expected to get his starters plenty of rest on Sunday.

I also expect a much better effort from a Dallas team that was just embarrassed by the Pistons. Everyone suiting up for the Mavs on Sunday will have one more chance to impress Jason Kidd before the playoffs start.

DAL vs OKC pick: Mavericks +19.5 (-110)

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Sascha Paruk’s 2023-24 NBA betting record:

19-25 moneyline (+2.26 units)24-19-2 ATS (+4.81 units)1-1 over/under (-0.09 units)9-15 player props (-7.17 units)0-3 same-game parlay (-3.00 units)